PILLAR IV:: ENERGY, WATER AND FOOD SECURITY
1.Energy: double power generation to 42,000 MW to provide uninterrupted and affordable electricity, and increase electricity access from 67% to over 90% of the population by 2025.
(a) reduce average cost per unit by over 25% by improving generation mix (15%) and reducing distribution losses (10%);
(b) increase percentage of indigenous sources of power generation to over 50%; and
(c) Address demand management by increasing usage of energy efficient appliances/products to 80%
3.Water: increase storage capacity to 90 days, improve efficiency of usage in agriculture by 20%, and ensure access to clean drinking water for all Pakistanis.
4.Food: Reduce food insecure population from 60% to 30% .
New Governance Paradigm
Pakistan Vision 2025 recognizes that sufficient, reliable, clean and cost-effective availability of energy, water and food for now and the future is indispensable in ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. These key sectors have suffered historically from severe failings of integrated policy and execution. Meeting this challenge has been further complicated due to the severe impact of ongoing climate change.
However, we are proud to have a renewed national consensus on committing major new investments, through unprecedented public and private sector collaboration, to bridge very large gaps that threaten the wellbeing and progress of our country. While investments to ensure the needed additional supply are being made, we are equally committed to creating and encouraging a culture of conservation and efficiency in the usage of energy and water.
Pakistan Vision 2025 aims at ensuring uninterrupted access to affordable and clean energy for all sections of the population. We have identified the following top 10 goals in this respect:
1. Eliminate current electricity supply-demand gap by 2018, and cater to growing future demand by addition of 25,000 MW by 2025.
2.Optimize energy generation mix between oil, gas, hydro, coal, nuclear, solar, wind and biomass with reference to its indigenousness, economic feasibility, scalability, risk assessment and environmental impact.
3. Complete two major hydel projects: DiamerBhasha and Dasu dams.
4. Operationalize the immense potential of Thar coal and complete Gaddani Energy Park with 6600 MW capacity.
5. Tap Pakistan's huge potential for alternative energy.
6. Complete new Nuclear power generation plants.
7. Maximize distribution efficiency and cut wasteful losses through investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure and effective enforcement of controls.
8. Address institutional fragmentation and decay of the sector due to poor capacity.
9. Focus on demand management and conservation to ensure prioritization in allocation, elimination of wasteful use, incentives to use more energy efficient equipment and appliances and achieve better balance between peak and off-peak hours.
10. Introduce institutional reform and strengthen regulatory frameworks to improve transparency and efficiency.
The current shortfall in supply of energy has resulted in a massive negative impact both on societal as well as economic wellbeing (reflected by an estimated 4-7% loss to the country's GDP). Pertinent factors causing adverse impact include: (a) Excessive reliance on expensive, imported oil; (b) Almost 30 % of the population without electricity – contributing to depletion of vital forest land; (c) Aging power plants and distribution infrastructure – causing up to a third of national power generation capacity loss through power leakages; (d) Weak governance leading to power wastage and theft; (e) Minimal investment in development of indigenous, inexpensive and scalable sources of power generation: specifically Hydropower and Coal; (f) A lack of focus and investment towards conservation, demand management – each of which will have a significant and quick impact.
Meeting the economic growth requirements to realize Pakistan Vision 2025 will demand enormous amounts of additional, reliable and cost-effective energy. Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses due to technical issues and electricity theft pose a very serious challenge T&D losses in Pakistan (over 25%) are much higher than in OECD countries (7%), Korea (3.6%) and China (8%). This offers an enormous opportunity to both make additional energy available to the national grid and proportionately reduce the cost per unit.
At present, out of the total installed generating capacity about two thirds is thermal, making electricity expensive. Rebalancing the generation mix therefore provides an important channel to reduce our cost per unit. In this regard, major programs are being launched – notably: building of the 9,500 MW Bhasha and Dasu Dams, Gaddani Energy Park 6600MW and major increase in power generation from alternative energy sources. China- Pakistan Economic energy projects will serve as a backbone of the energy strategy to overcome power crisis in Pakistan.
Pakistan has great potential for energy savings through use of more power efficient equipment, with expected savings of 15-20% of total energy consumption in the country. This corresponds to a significant reduction in net oil imports. Private investments in hydel and other renewable sources will be encouraged. Based on estimates the private sector has invested over PKR700b (approx. $7b) in small scale thermal generation capacity.
Concerted programs are being launched to tap Pakistan's immense potential for developing Shale Oil and Gas. Shale gas reserves are estimated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 5346 Million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe), 1323 of which are technically recoverable presently. In view of its enormous potential, and the wellrecognized need to maximize energy availability or our rapid development needs, in depth technical and investment feasibility studies, with a view to making a substantial impact in closing the projected supply-demand gap, have been initiated as a strategic priority. In addition other opportunities for oil and gas exploration will also be explored.
Coal is a cost efficient source of fuel; the country has an enormous amount of untapped coal reserves (around 186 billion tons). Accordingly, we plan to increase domestic coal production from 4.5 to 60 million tonnes per year. This requires huge capital investments in addition to transmission networks. Moreover, there are concerns about resulting CO2 emissions associated with coal based thermal power projects. Accordingly, we are committed to adoption of clean coal combustion technologies, along with strong policies to make its use eco-friendly, to conform to international standards.
Energy Conservation & Demand Management – The energy saving potential of Pakistan is estimated to be over 11 MTOE (million tons of oil equivalent). As far as energy conservation is concerned, no legislative framework is in place, institutional structure has remained weak and codes and standards have not been launched. A national initiative towards the conservation of energy will be taken to use the available capacity more effectively.
Further, considering the organizational and technical complexity inherent in deriving a balance of energy related targets we will expedite and utilize the work already started in developing an "Integrated Energy Development Model" that offers a highly structured framework to simulate results and analyze strategic options such as:
(i) Least-cost energy systems and compositions;
(ii) Cost-effective responses to restrictions on emissions;
(iii) Long-term energy balances under different scenarios;
(iv) Impact of new technologies;
(v) Benefits of regional cooperation;
(vi) Effects of regulations, taxes and subsidies.
Accordingly, we will accelerate the development and deployment of an "Integrated Energy Development Model" to enable our energy sector (that includes separate ministries of Petroleum and Natural Resources; Water and Power; Planning and Development; Environment, Transport and Communications; and also the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission – as well as separate regulatory bodies for oil and gas, and electric power) to benefit from a single overarching model across the related ministries or regulatory bodies.
This view is consistent with the approach of other developing and developed countries where least-cost energy plans are developed through a rigorous integrated process.
One of the key aspects of our current energy strategy is to focus on ensuring efficient power generation. There is more than 1200 MW energy that is lost due to inefficiencies. Minimum baseline efficiency standards will be developed and monitored in assessing all new investments – i.e. in efficiency improvements versus building additional capacity.
Access to an adequate supply of water for all (agriculture, industry and domestic users) is one of the absolute priorities of Vision 2025. Realizing Pakistan Vision 2025 requires policies to correct the demand and supply imbalance with a sharp focus on both sides of the equation. Our top five goals for water security are:
1. Increase water storage capacity, applicable to the requirements of each province, in line with defined strategic needs and international benchmarks: from currently 30 days to 45 days by 2018, and 90 days by 2025.
2. Invest in proven methods and technologies to minimize wastage (e.g. in the agricultural sector), promote conservation and gain efficiencies through rationalization of pricing.
3. Enable more effective allocation with direct reference to national & provincial priorities and related social and economic considerations.
4. Establish institutional mechanisms (e.g. a National Water Commission) to effectively manage all sources of water (surface, subsurface, rain) and their sectoral and regional allocations (agriculture, industry, urban).
5. Provision of access to a minimum baseline of suitable water to every person in Pakistan.
Pakistan is in the group of countries that are now moving from water stressed to water scarce. Accordingly, as the supply of fresh water remains largely fixed and in view of the emerging issues related to climate change, 'water resource management' is both a serious challenge and opportunity. Institutional structure for water management in Pakistan is fragmented and there is no holistic national water management policy.
Key reasons accounting for growing water scarcity include: sharp increases in population, declining storage capacity, falling water tables, ageing infrastructure, uneconomic cropping patterns, desertification, drought, rapid urbanization, growing industrial demand, lack of adequate and standard laws for water usage (and re-use) and alarming growth in water contamination.
One of the key challenges to Pakistan's already scarce water resources is the repeated contamination of the sources of water supply and disposal of effluent into fresh water resources, i.e. rivers, lakes, canals and ground water. In addition to industrial and sewerage effluent, the rainfall run off from the urban development into fresh water resources needs proper management before disposal/storage into dams and ground water resources.
Watershed management is crucial to control the contamination of rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The catchment outflow into the rivers and reservoirs is highly turbid due to excessive sedimentation load, and stagnant water is rich in biological and bacteriological contaminants causing pollution of major reservoirs and river water.
Major sources of contamination of river water are natural drains passing through urban and industrial areas. The outflow of these drains contains highly contaminated industrial waste that becomes the part of Ravi and Chenab Rivers. Water carries the contaminants along its flow and there is a need of establishment of strict criterion to ensure effective contamination management in Rivers.
Water contamination and poor water quality have a direct and very significant impact on the nation's health – with water borne infections accounting for 70% of all common diseases impacting our national health. Providing access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation are critical for promoting health. Key targets in this regard include providing safe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene services for all, promoting water conservation, eliminating open defecation, domestic and industrial wastewater treatment and reuse, reducing pollution from water sources, water resource management, water related disaster resilience and sustainable extraction from water resources. The Government of Pakistan has signed a number of regional and global commitments in 2013 and 2014 and is committed to fulfilling these commitments and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG's). The Planning Commission will coordinate between all stakeholders towards formulating an Integrated Water Resource Management Strategy. Another key determining factor for the growing gap between demand and supply arises from the continuing lack of adequate recognition of the economic value of water. This is reflected in our historical policies, which treated water availability almost exclusively as a supply-side problem, with a near-total neglect of demand side issues and rationalized water usage charges. The graph below demonstrates the dramatic change Pakistan has experienced – moving from a water abundant to a water scarce country within a single generation.
"The Government of Pakistan has signed a number of regional and global commitments in 2013 and 2014 and is committed to fulfilling these commitments and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG's)"
Pakistan's rising water demands are met by the Indus River System, supplying 180 billion cubic meters of water. The river system is sustained by glaciers in the Hindukush-Karakoram ranges, believed to be receding under influence of climate change and global warming. 75% of annual Indus river system supplies occur during three monsoon months and all access availability goes to the sea due to inadequate storage capacity. New reservoirs will be built quickly to ensure supplies during the rest of the year for agricultural, industrial and domestic consumption.
With approximately 95% of the water allocated to agriculture/rural areas, the need to adopt efficient and effective methods for its distribution, usage (and re-use), storage and quality is of paramount importance to sustain the country's economic and human/social wellbeing. Proper water pricing and crop-based price variations will to be used as tools for promotion of water efficient crops and discouraging wasteful crops particularly at the tail-end of various irrigation zones.
Uncontrolled and unregulated pumping of subsurface water in sweet zones and urban areas is resulting in rapid loss of the sub-surface water table, expansion of brackish water zones and expansion of saline zones. Urban water supplies are wasteful, heavily reliant on expensive pumping, poorly managed, ill-priced and often unfit for human consumption.
Implementation of a comprehensive National Water Policy: reflecting a transparent and coherent institutional framework and policy, adapted to the demands of the 21st century, which also gives due consideration to climate change should be adopted at the earliest. The resulting strategy will combine multiple elements including technical advancements and social considerations to give response to the formidable challenge of water scarcity.
The government will carefully reconsider applying reasonable water usage charges and incentives to encourage efficient and effective use of our scarce resource. Further, we will start a comprehensive awareness drive to educate people about the benefits of judicious consumption and shared consequences of wastage. Due consideration will be provided to harvest rain water in lakes and ponds and also at the household and community levels.
Pakistan Vision 2025 seeks a Pakistan where "all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" . Pakistan Vision 2025 envisages food security in the context of the entire supply-chain- from production, processing, storage and distribution to consumption.
Keeping the above in mind, our top 5 objectives for achieving food security are to:
1. Protect the most food-insecure segments of the population through effective relief measures, including long-term arrangements and adaptation mechanisms.
2. Create a modern, efficient and diversified agricultural sector – aligned with associated water and energy infrastructure –that can ensure a stable and adequate provision of basic food supplies for the country's population, and provide high quality products to its industries and for export.
3. Optimize production and supply mix in line with current and projected needs by leveraging our unique strengths.
4. Ensure that the entire supply-chain related to food security is geared towards provision of stable and affordable access to adequate, nutritious and safe food for a healthy life.
5. Use the resource base in an efficient and sustainable manner–with outcome-based benchmarks agreed in line with regional and global standards.
The agriculture sector in Pakistan faces a number of major challenges in the coming years as one in every three Pakistanis still does not have regular and assured access to sufficient nutritious food. Agricultural performance in Pakistan has been poor in recent years with slow growth (3.1% in 201112 and 3.3% over the last decade). Major factors underlying this poor performance include a slow rate of technological innovation, limited adoption of progressive farming techniques, problems with quality, quantity and timeliness of input supply, limited investment in construction and maintenance of infrastructure; marketing and trade restrictions, pest and livestock disease problems, and limited amounts of credit for agricultural production and processing and the lack of agriculture-specific financing.
Public investment in agriculture, with a focus on food production and distribution, will be raised to at least 10% of the total public sector development expenditure at federal and provincial level.
Raising the growth rate of agriculture, which contributes 21.4 percent to GDP and employs 45 percent of our labour force, is a key driver towards achieving Pakistan Vision 2025 goals. Improving service delivery to farmers and introducing support mechanisms for timely access to quality inputs will be made through establishment of Rural Business Hubs (RBHs). Government support and spending for agriculture will be reviewed and rationalized to ensure it is directed to areas such as research, pest and disease surveillance, efficient water use, alternate energy, agroprocessing and creation and administration of a regulatory and legislative framework; addressing externalities such as enhancing sustainability and adopting environmentally friendly activities; and for social purposes, particularly addressing the needs of the poor and vulnerable whose limited access to goods and services does not permit them to undertake productivity and income enhancing investments.
We will replace the current wheat procurement system with a more rationalized program that procures the quantities needed to provide subsidized wheat or flour to the most food insecure consumers through well-defined and explicitly targeted interventions.
Other measures to ensure food security include:
Improving access to food by the poor households
Targeted productivity enhancement programs will be introduced for farmers livestock owners below subsistence level
Increasing production of critical food items mainly in the remote areas of Pakistan
Strengthening nutritional education for high risk groups such as pregnant and lactating women, young children, the elderly and disabled
It is estimated that half of the population of Pakistan experiences malnutrition. The prevalence of stunting (44%) among children aged less than five years has remained virtually unchanged since 1965. In Pakistan, 15% of children under age 5 suffer from acute malnutrition – the second-highest rate in the region. Similarly, a high percentage of the population is underweight or suffers from micronutrient deficiencies. Poverty and hunger is leading to extreme behaviours and violence. Pakistan Vision 2025 seeks a healthy and hunger-free Pakistan. Emphasis will be on targeting the most food-insecure segments of the population. Innovative and cost-effective strategies will be implemented in order to achieve sustained development.. These include: the Hunger Free Pakistan Program; Ready to use fortified food for breast feeding mothers and pregnant women; Food for work schemes; Livelihood Initiatives for improved access to food; Nutrition specific and sensitive interventions; Ready to use fortified food supplementation, fortification and bio-fortification; Feeding programs for infants and young children.
Centres of excellence at the provincial and federal levels, and academic training in nutrition at university level shall be established. Presence of a nutritionist in every school will be ensured through training of teachers. Food standards will be strictly enforced to ensure quality nutrition.
Global warming and the attendant climate change, resulting in significant and lasting change in weather patterns is having a severe impact on Pakistan including increased frequency and severity of natural disasters. This has a direct and major impact on each of our vital water, energy and food security considerations.
Accordingly, our key goals for responding to climate change are:
Design water, food and energy security policies and plans of the country with specific reference to the profound challenges posed by climate change.
Explicit recognition of the relevant risks (and associated economic and social costs and implementation of well-defined mitigation and adaptation strategies / measures.
To promote long term sustainability, conservation and protection of natural resources.
While Pakistan makes a negligible contribution to total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (among the lowest in the world), it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country has very low technical and financial capacity to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. Global warming has caused acceleration in melting glaciers, shifts in biodiversity, changes in crop and vegetation distribution, vulnerability of mountain, desert, marine and coastal ecosystems. In Pakistan this has been further exacerbated by a relatively high rate of urbanization. To address the climate change impacts a National Climate Change Policy is in place since 2012.
As a developing country, which is party to the Kyoto Protocol, Pakistan is eligible to benefit from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to access the international resources for mitigating the impact of climate change. Accordingly, the government will actively leverage our CDM cell for processing and recommending CDM projects to earn carbon credits that will be reinvested in related projects. Pakistan is also eligible for Green Climate Fund to get resources for mitigation and adaptation to climate change and can also access funding under the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA). Further, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol secretariats offers capacity building opportunities to Pakistan for strengthening the institutional arrangements for addressing the climate change issues. These opportunities will be aggressively explored.